The Price Jump Is Coming: Why You Need to Stock Up on Food & Consumer Goods This Week

Your window is closing. Here's the data, and here's what to buy.

This is an important post. It builds on everything we have covered so far in the educational parts of learning about what is going on with the Iran war, the oil shock, the impact to the food supply and the impact on the economy. Now we transition into what to do about it, how to prepare and position yourself right now the mitigate the impacts as much as possible. If you want to skip the analysis and jump straight to the “what to do section” it is located at the bottom. This post has the free starter preparedness guide for food for the oil shock and its impact on the prices you pay, the availability of items, and the impact on the economy. Paid subscribers will get access to a very in depth guide with over 100 items and explanations of food, water, consumer products, how to store fuel in case of a shortage, how to navigate the fertilizer shortage for gardening and growing some of your own food and much more. If you aren’t a paid subscriber yet, I can assure you this guide and future bonus material will make the subscription worth it (there are already paid subscription bonus videos and posts in the library such as on digital security and others). In addition, I am currently writing an e-book that goes deeper into the Oil Shock & what to expect, how to position and prepare yourself in all areas of your life, go into very deep detail on the current fragile state of the economy and tell you all the huge red flags that exist that the mainstream media isn’t telling you, discuss financial preparedness, and a lot more. Paid subscribers will get a free copy of this 100+ page book.

I just lowered subscription prices to make it more affordable for folks.

But first, since this is a rapidly evolving situation, we need to cover a few brief news headlines that impact what is going on. Less than 24 hours after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, the deal is already fracturing.

BREAKING NEWS UPDATE:

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf declared the ceasefire “unreasonable,” accusing the U.S. of violating three clauses of the agreement before negotiations even started: continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon, a drone intrusion into Iranian airspace, and denial of Iran’s right to uranium enrichment. He concluded: “a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable.” Multiple outlets report Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz again in response.

Here is what happened in the first 24 hours of this “ceasefire”:

Israel launched what it called its largest coordinated strike on Lebanon since the war began. 254 killed. 1,165 injured. Dense residential neighborhoods in Beirut hit without warning. Israel says Lebanon was never part of the deal. Pakistan, which brokered the ceasefire, says it was. Iran says it was. That’s three parties to the agreement with two different versions of what it says.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline — the kingdom’s only remaining crude export route since the Strait closed — was hit by an Iranian drone. If that pipeline goes down, Saudi oil exports drop to near zero. Kuwait had 28 drones launched at it. Three power and water desalination plants severely damaged. The UAE intercepted 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones on ceasefire day alone. Bahrain had civilian injuries from shrapnel. Iran’s own Lavan Island oil refinery was attacked.

The Iranian navy issued a direct message to commercial shipping: “Any vessel trying to travel into the sea... will be targeted and destroyed.” The Strait remains closed.

And what did Wall Street do? The Dow had its best day in a year. Oil futures plunged — WTI crashed 15% to $95.69, Brent fell 14% to $93.60. Markets celebrated a piece of paper while the physical reality on the ground got worse. Saudi pipelines hit. Gulf infrastructure damaged. 254 people killed in Lebanon. The Strait still closed. But the stock ticker went green, and that’s supposed to mean the crisis is over.

It’s not over. The market is pricing in a fantasy. The physical economy — the one where diesel powers your grocery deliveries and fertilizer feeds your crops — hasn’t changed at all.

Vice President Vance warned: if Iran doesn’t reopen Hormuz, “the president is not going to abide by our terms.” Meanwhile, President Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House to discuss a potential U.S. withdrawal from the alliance. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt: “They were tested and they failed. NATO turned their backs on the American people over the course of the last six weeks.” After the meeting, Trump posted on Truth Social: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”

Here is what I need you to understand: this ceasefire does not change anything in the analysis below. The ceasefire may already be dead. But even if it somehow survives, the damage is done:

The diesel that is already at $5.62 a gallon is already on the trucks delivering your food. The fertilizer that wasn’t shipped for 40 days isn’t arriving this week. The planting decisions that farmers already made — shifting away from crops that need nitrogen fertilizer — aren’t reversing. The 40-day threshold that the United Nations warned would trigger structural crop reductions was crossed yesterday. Oil at $95 is still 43% above pre-war levels. And the physical crude that refineries already purchased at $141 per barrel is already in the pipeline.

The ceasefire announcement will make people think the crisis is over. That is exactly when you should be buying — while everyone else relaxes.

If the ceasefire holds, prices come down slowly over months, not days. If it collapses — and Iran’s Parliament Speaker just called it “unreasonable” — prices snap back to $112+ overnight. Either way, the food price increases from the last 40 days of diesel and fertilizer disruption are locked in and arriving at your grocery store in the next two to four weeks.

Read the full analysis below. Then go shopping.

Today is Day 40 of the Iran war. Gas just crossed $4.14 a gallon. Diesel hit $5.62 — up 49% since February 28. In San Francisco, diesel is above $8.

But here’s the thing most people haven’t realized yet: the food prices haven’t hit.

They will. And when they do, the shelves won’t stay full for long.

I’m going to walk you through exactly why, exactly when, and exactly what you should be buying this week. At the end, I’ll give you a practical shopping list — the foundation of a 30-day emergency food supply built around the cheapest, most calorie-dense staples available.

The complete, in-depth guide — covering 100+ items across food, household goods, garden fertilizer, and fuel storage, quantities, and sourcing strategies — will be available to paid subscribers tomorrow. But the basics below will get you started on the journey. What matters is that you act this week.

Why Food? Why Now?

The diesel problem is a food problem.

Every piece of food on every shelf in every grocery store in America got there on a diesel-powered truck. Every single item.

FTR Transportation Intelligence, one of the freight industry’s leading research firms, estimates that diesel fuel costs per mile for American truckers increased by 21 to 24 cents in just three weeks — the largest increase over that timeframe on record. Forty-five out of fifty states are seeing diesel up more than a dollar per gallon in four weeks. Some owner-operators have parked their trucks because they can’t make loads profitable at these prices.

When it costs more to move food, food costs more. That math hasn’t fully arrived at your grocery store yet — diesel-to-shelf typically takes two to four weeks. That clock started ticking in mid-March. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, estimated that a 10% rise in diesel pushes headline inflation up by 0.1%. Diesel is up 49%. Do the math.

And it’s not just the truck. It’s the packaging.

Nearly all food packaging is petroleum-derived. The plastic wrap around your meat. The containers your berries come in. The bags, bottles, trays, lids, and shrink wrap. Over 6,000 everyday consumer products are manufactured from petroleum. When crude oil nearly doubles — from $67 pre-war to $141 for physical delivery — the cost of packaging every item on every shelf goes up alongside the cost of transporting it there. You’re paying for the oil in the truck AND the oil in the wrapper.

The fertilizer crisis is even worse.

One-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed since February 28. Russia banned ammonium nitrate exports through April 21. China restricted urea and phosphate through August. All three major fertilizer source regions are restricted simultaneously. This has never happened before. There is no strategic reserve for fertilizer.

The American Farm Bureau Federation — representing millions of American farmers — wrote directly to President Trump warning that the U.S. “risks a shortfall in crops” and that “such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy.”

The Farm Bureau’s economist, Faith Parum, told NBC News: “We’re slowly starting to hear the longer this goes on, we’re also going to have issues with even the availability of the fertilizer. We’re going on to year four of losses across the farm economy. It’s going to become harder and harder for them to put a crop in the ground.”

Farm bankruptcies hit 315 last year — up 46% from the year before. This isn’t future speculation. Farmers are already shifting acreage away from crops that need nitrogen fertilizer. That means less corn and less rice in the American food supply this fall.

This isn’t ending. The rhetoric is escalating.

If you’re waiting for this to blow over, look at the trajectory of the President’s own words:

March 30: Threatened to “completely obliterate” Iran’s power grid. Oil surged 11%.

April 2: Posted footage of a destroyed bridge and wrote: “Much more to follow!”

April 5, Easter Sunday: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day.” Followed by a Fox interview where he said he was “considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.”

Monday, 7:06 AM: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” First use of the phrase “Complete and Total Regime Change.”

This is not the language of someone preparing to negotiate the reopening of a shipping lane. Every statement has been more extreme than the last. Iran reportedly told mediators it still holds 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones.

The Strait of Hormuz is not reopening this month. Probably not next month. High oil prices are here to stay for a long time.

We just crossed the 40-day threshold.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s chief economist warned that if high energy and fertilizer prices persist beyond 40 days, farmers worldwide will reduce inputs, plant less, and switch to less demanding crops — hurting yields through the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

Today is Day 40. We just crossed the line.

What Is the “Jump Zone”?

This is the timing mechanism that determines when these costs arrive at your grocery store. Understanding it is the difference between being prepared and being caught off guard.

Right now, there are two oil prices. The futures price — what you see on cable news — is around $112 per barrel. The physical price — what refiners actually pay for real barrels being delivered today — hit $141.37 on April 2. That’s the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. The gap between them is over $30 per barrel.

The Chevron CEO said at the oil industry’s premier conference that the physical impacts of the Strait closure “are not fully priced into the futures curves.” Cable news is showing you the lower number. The real number is $30 higher.

Why hasn’t the $141 price hit your pump yet? Because of the delivery tail. Ships loaded with Gulf crude before the war started are still arriving. Those ships take ~45 days to reach the U.S. The last pre-war shipments arrive around April 15.

After April 15, the cheap barrels are gone. The pump-price lag from refinery to gas station is two to four weeks. That gives you:

April 16 through April 23 — the jump zone.

This is when gas prices are projected to spike from $4.14 to $4.50–$4.70 per gallon in a single week. Diesel will spike proportionally. And because every grocery item was delivered by diesel and packaged in petroleum, food prices follow within days.

The Panic Buying Risk

I want to be direct about something I’m seeing.

The severity of this crisis has not hit home yet for most Americans. Gas is visible. Food isn’t — yet. Most people assume this is temporary.

When the jump zone hits — when gas crosses $4.50, diesel pushes toward $6 nationally, and grocery prices visibly spike — the psychology shifts. I’m already seeing early signals on social media: posts about food shortages, warnings about prices skyrocketing. Australia has had 550 gas stations run dry. Pakistan closed markets by 8 PM. Bangladesh by 6 PM.

We saw what happened in March 2020 during Covid. Rice shelves stripped. Canned goods vanished. Not because of a manufacturing shortage — because collective anxiety overwhelmed distribution.

This time the trigger is slower but the underlying problem is worse. In 2020, factories were running and supply chains recovered in weeks. This time, the fertilizer shortage means the fall harvest is already compromised. You’re not buying ahead of a two-week disruption. You’re buying ahead of a six-to-twelve month structural price increase.

The window you have — maybe 7 to 10 days — is a window where shelves are still full and prices haven’t fully transmitted. That window closes when the jump zone hits. After that, prices spike and everyone starts buying at once.

I am not telling you to panic. I am telling you to be early. There is a difference.

The Emergency Preparedness Food Foundation Shopping List: Buy This Week

This list gives you the most calories per dollar with the longest shelf life. It’s the starting point.

Rice and Beans Foundation - 50 lb bag of white rice — ~80,000 calories. Store in a sealed container. - 24 cans of beans (black, pinto, kidney, chickpeas) — complete protein with rice.

Proteins - Peanut butter, 3-4 large jars — highest-value food per dollar. - Canned chicken or turkey, 12-15 cans. - Canned tuna or salmon, 10-12 cans. - Dried lentils, 10 lbs — cheaper than canned, cooks faster than dried beans. - Canned chili, 8-10 cans — complete meal in a can.

Fats and Oils (Most People Under-Stock This) Fat is the most calorie-dense macronutrient — 9 calories per gram, more than double protein or carbs. - Cooking oil, 2-3 large bottles. - Coconut oil, 1 jar — extremely long shelf life. - Ghee, 1-2 jars — shelf-stable without refrigeration.

Grains and Starches - Oats, 10 lbs. Pasta, 10-15 lbs. Instant mashed potatoes, 3-4 boxes. Cornmeal, 5 lbs.

Canned Vegetables and Fruits - Canned tomatoes, 12-15 cans — the base of dozens of meals. - Canned vegetables, 12-16 cans total. - Canned fruit, 8-10 cans — morale matters under sustained stress.

Seasoning (Not Optional) Bland food causes “appetite fatigue” — people stop eating enough even when food is available. - Bouillon cubes, hot sauce, soy sauce, garlic powder, onion powder, cumin, chili powder, salt, honey.

Don’t Forget: Coffee or tea. A manual can opener. Multivitamins. Dog food if applicable.

What’s in the Full Guide

The list above gets you started. It’s the foundation — enough to keep a household fed for 30 days on a budget.

The complete Preparedness & Politics Emergency Oil Shock Emergency Supply Guide (Which also prepares you for any emergency) goes much deeper:

The Full Food Guide includes detailed quantities for your household size, calorie-per-dollar calculations, a two-tier storage system, protein rotation, baking from scratch, no-cook options for power outages, and a complete 30-day meal plan.

The Household Goods Guide covers 50+ petroleum-based products about to spike in price — from trash bags and cleaning supplies to personal care, automotive, and medical essentials.

The Garden Fertilizer Guide covers which fertilizers to buy, organic alternatives that don’t depend on petroleum, and free options like composting. With nitrogen fertilizer up 50% and climbing, this could save you hundreds of dollars on food this year.

Fuel storage basics round out the guide. With the possibility of fuel shortages during this crisis, having an extra tank of fuel for your car is a good preparedness strategy. I will tell you exactly the storage container you need, what you need to add to the fuel to make it long term stable, and safety tips.

Become a paid subscriber now to get the complete guide, which in turn helps me fund and continue this vital work to serve this community and to grow. I just reduced the subscription cost to make it even more affordable.

The Bottom Line

The Farm Bureau is warning the President about food security. The UN just crossed its own 40-day threshold. Diesel is up 49%. Fertilizer sources are cut on three continents. The President just used the phrase “Complete and Total Regime Change.” The delivery tail ends in one week. The jump zone hits the week after.

And the grocery shelves are still full. That won’t last. Use this week wisely.

- Jason, Emergency Preparedness & Security Consultant, a 14-year Army veteran that served in Iraq and trained by FEMA in emergency planning and response.

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